Inflation, all we've never wanted.

The Go-Go's may have sang about vacation being all we've ever wanted in the 1980's, but if we were to re-write the lyrics about last week, we could sing about inflation. Read on to learn why this matters.
We saw a double dose of inflation news last week and while the Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) remained unchanged in August, the year-over-year Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped up to hit the upper-end of the Fed's threshold of 2%.

So why is this significant? The concept is very simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.

What’s more, in light of last week’s higher consumer inflation reading, the Misery Index—which is the Unemployment Rate (9.1%) plus the level of year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index (3.8%)—is at a disconcerting 12.9, which is the highest in nearly 30 years. Our great country needs a whopping dose of certainty, clarity and confidence...and in the absence of it, this index will continue to rise.

Remember: Once inflation starts to emerge it can manifest rather quickly. Future inflation readings will be closely watched to see if a trend higher is emerging, and last week’s elevated number will certainly heat up the debate surrounding more stimulus, as more money into the system fuels inflation further. If inflation heats up even more, the Fed will likely back off their "low rates until mid-2013" mandate. Inflation really does change everything, and I will continue to follow this story closely and keep you informed.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home. If I can answer any  questions at all for you or your clients, call or email me anytime.